President Donald Trump is set to host top congressional leaders from both parties at the White House on Monday afternoon in a bid to avert a partial government shutdown that could begin at midnight on Tuesday. The standoff stems from a failure to agree on a temporary funding bill, with Democrats insisting on provisions to extend Affordable Care Act subsidies and reverse recent Medicaid cuts, while Republicans push for a clean extension without policy add-ons. Without a deal, millions of federal workers face furloughs or unpaid work, marking the first such crisis in Trump’s second term.
Core of the Conflict
The current impasse centers on a stopgap funding measure needed to keep the government running beyond September 30. Republicans, who control the White House, House, and Senate, passed a clean continuing resolution in the House earlier this month, extending funding through November 21. Senate Democrats blocked it, demanding legislative guarantees on healthcare issues. At issue are subsidies under the Affordable Care Act, expanded in 2021 and set to expire, along with Medicaid reductions enacted in Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” signed in July. That law slashed $840 billion from Medicaid over a decade, including work requirements projected to affect 7.8 million people. Democrats, led by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, have vowed not to repeat their March compromise, when they supported a GOP bill without input. “Our position has been very clear: cancel the cuts, lower the costs, save healthcare,” Jeffries said. Republicans counter that Democrats are holding the government hostage. House Speaker Mike Johnson stated, “Chuck Schumer came back with a long laundry list of partisan demands that don’t fit into this process, and he’s going to try to shut the government down.” Senate Majority Leader John Thune echoed, “The ball is in their court.”
Potential Impacts
A shutdown would furlough hundreds of thousands of nonessential federal workers and require essential personnel, including military members and air traffic controllers, to work without pay until funding resumes, though back pay is guaranteed. The Trump administration has directed agencies to prepare for permanent layoffs in underfunded programs, potentially accelerating ongoing workforce reductions that have cut 140,000 federal jobs since January. Trump has threatened mass firings, saying, “And if there is, we are going to cut a lot of the people that … we’re able to cut on a permanent basis, and we will be doing that.” Economically, even a short closure could strain an economy facing high inflation and tariff effects, with disruptions to services like farm loans during harvest season. Politically, both sides see advantages: Republicans believe Democrats will bear blame, while Democrats argue GOP control makes them responsible. A senior Democratic aide warned, “Brace yourselves for one hell of a storm.
This brinkmanship recalls past shutdowns, including three during Trump’s first term. The longest, from December 2018 to January 2019, lasted 35 days over border wall funding and cost the economy $11 billion. Since 1980, there have been 14 shutdowns, often resolved through compromise. The current fight is unique as Democrats, in the minority, are pushing for a shutdown to force healthcare concessions, reversing typical roles. Vice President JD Vance has defended cuts to “bloated bureaucracy,” but unions report widespread anxiety among workers.
Outlook for the Week
Monday’s White House meeting, involving Trump, Schumer, Jeffries, Johnson, and Thune, is pivotal but follows Trump’s cancellation of a prior session, which he called Democrats’ demands “unserious.” Schumer cautioned, “If the president at this meeting is going to rant and just yell at Democrats… we won’t get anything done.” The Senate returns Monday evening for a possible vote on the GOP plan, while the House remains in recess unless recalled. Democrats have called members back Monday night to pressure Republicans. If talks fail, a shutdown begins Wednesday, with potential for escalation. Thune suggested flexibility on subsidies post-funding, saying, “We can have that conversation, but before we do: release the hostage, set the American people free.” Analysts see a narrow window for resolution, but entrenched positions raise shutdown odds.
